Suspending Indus Water Treaty could bring catastrophic consequences for Pakistan, as warned by a former top official. This agreement, which governs the distribution of water from the Indus River system between India and Pakistan, has been a lifeline for Pakistan since 1960. Disrupting this treaty would affect not just the environment, but also the country’s economy, agriculture, and even its regional security.
The Indus Water Treaty divides six major rivers between India and Pakistan, with Pakistan relying on the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—for almost all its water needs. Suspending this treaty could lead to dire consequences, from severe water shortages to escalating tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
Why Suspending Indus Water Treaty Puts Pakistan’s Water Security in Jeopardy
Suspending Indus Water Treaty would leave Pakistan vulnerable to an unprecedented water crisis. The country’s population is already facing acute water scarcity, and without a stable supply from the Indus River system, this situation could worsen significantly. The former official stressed that Pakistan’s water security is deeply tied to this agreement and that cutting off these water sources would exacerbate the already critical situation.
Pakistan relies on these rivers for agriculture, industry, and daily living. With agriculture being a major part of the economy, any reduction in water supply could decimate crop production, leading to widespread food shortages and economic instability.
The Economic Impact of Suspending Indus Water Treaty
The economic consequences of suspending Indus Water Treaty would be devastating for Pakistan. Agriculture accounts for nearly 20% of the GDP and employs around 35% of the workforce (source). A disruption in water supply would cripple Pakistan’s agricultural output, affecting crops such as rice, wheat, and cotton—vital for both local consumption and export.
The economic downfall wouldn’t stop there. Key industries such as textiles, food processing, and sugar mills, which rely heavily on water resources, would also suffer major setbacks. Job losses would escalate, and millions would be pushed into poverty, worsening the country’s already fragile economic state.
Environmental Risks of Suspending Indus Water Treaty
Another alarming effect of suspending Indus Water Treaty would be the severe environmental degradation it could cause. The Indus River Delta, which supports an array of unique ecosystems and wildlife, is already under threat due to reduced water flow. With further cuts in river discharge, salinity levels would rise, leading to the destruction of fertile land, the loss of biodiversity, and environmental collapse.
This would also affect fishing communities that rely on the Indus Delta for their livelihoods. Any environmental damage caused by a suspension of the treaty could be irreversible, with long-term consequences for the population and the ecosystem.
Diplomatic Fallout and Regional Instability from Suspending Indus Water Treaty
The decision to suspend the Indus Water Treaty could also trigger a diplomatic and security crisis between India and Pakistan. Despite many tensions and wars over the years, this treaty has been a rare example of cooperation between the two nations. It has ensured that water disputes do not escalate into full-blown conflicts.
The former official cautioned that removing this mechanism would lead to further hostility, risking not only political instability but also military confrontation. Pakistan could bring the issue before international bodies like the United Nations or the International Court of Justice, which could only escalate tensions further.
The Humanitarian Cost of Suspending Indus Water Treaty
The most vulnerable in Pakistan would be the rural populations who rely directly on the river for irrigation, drinking water, and sanitation. Suspending Indus Water Treaty would severely affect millions of farmers, leading to crop failures and food shortages.
This would also trigger a humanitarian crisis, with large-scale displacement of people from rural areas to cities in search of water and livelihood. Public health problems, including waterborne diseases, would also increase rapidly, placing immense pressure on an already struggling healthcare system.
Final Thoughts: Suspending Indus Water Treaty Would Bring Irreparable Harm
The call for suspending the Indus Water Treaty is more than a political or diplomatic issue—it’s a matter of survival for Pakistan. As the former official emphasized, the risks associated with this decision far outweigh any potential benefits. Water is life, and disrupting the flow of water would lead to an unprecedented crisis across multiple sectors of society.
Rather than dismantling this crucial treaty, Pakistan and India must focus on strengthening cooperation over water resources, ensuring that both countries can adapt to the challenges of climate change and rising demand for water in a more sustainable manner.